What emerging signals should FMCG leaders have on their radar?
This article is part of Stravito’s article series, The Next Move, where futurist and marketing expert Maria Selting Theorell explores emerging shifts through a strategic foresight lens, what they could mean for businesses, and prompts the questions teams should be asking now to stay ahead.
TL;DR
- For a broader view of the trends and signals influencing consumer behavior, read our previous deep dive.
- In this article, we explore signals that could influence the future of food and the FMCG sector.
- Up next, we will cover finance, pharmaceuticals and life sciences, and media and telecommunications.
Could a pill tailored to our nutritional and calorie needs one day replace food?
With all the hype and scientific progress within longevity, this sci-fi future seems technically more possible than ever.
But even if it were possible, would you take it? Food plays such an important social and cultural role in our societies that it’s hard to imagine we’d stop eating altogether. We may increasingly optimize our health as science progresses, but the intrinsic drive to experience the joy of a good meal seems likely to remain.
While the food pill scenario remains highly speculative, what are some of the nearer-term signals could influence the food industry’s future?
We spoke to foresight experts Alisha Bhagat and Michelle Stearn of Forum for the Future, Matt Carmichael of What the Future powered by Ipsos, and Andrew Merrie, PhD, of Planethon. Each shared a signal that could influence the future of food and explained how FMCG companies may turn it into an opportunity.
But before we dive into future-gazing signals, what are some of the macrotrends shaping the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry right now?
3 macrotrends shaping the FMCG industry today
| Stravito is pleased to work with Euromonitor International, the macrotrend insights partner for this signal industry series. Stravito and Euromonitor customers can access Euromonitor’s insights directly through our integrations. |
Tom Rees, Global Insight Manager at Euromonitor International, highlights three key macrotrends:
1. Birth rates are falling, and there’s an expected decline in childcare products
The global birth rate is forecast to fall by 7.2% between 2026 and 2040. Birth rates are expected to decline across most regions. In developed nations, they are below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, with Israel the sole exception.
This trend will first affect childcare products, such as baby food and children’s breakfast cereals, where demand is expected to contract.
Questions for leaders:
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What share of our revenue depends on childcare products?
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Can we diversify or move up the value chain to offset the loss?
2. Private labels will continue to gain strength, and brand loyalty will be harder to protect
Sales of staple foods through discount retailers such as Aldi, Lidl, and Penny in the EU increased globally by 45.9% between 2020 and 2025. Amid rising living costs, intensified by the war in Iran, retailers are recognizing private labels as strategic assets.
Private labels are moving into territory once dominated by leading brands, raising the bar for differentiation. As a result, price premiums based on brand loyalty will become harder to justify.
Question for leaders:
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As the market evolves, which path offers the strongest opportunity: investing further in brand differentiation, developing innovative food products, rethinking distribution, or focusing on cost efficiency?
3. Plant-based meat is evolving beyond pure substitutes
The global beef commodity price is expected to rise by 22.3% from 2025 to 2027. Hybrid or blended processed meat products are gaining ground in Europe. REWE, a major German grocery retailer, launched its Plant ’n’ Beef burger with 70% beef and 30% plant-based ingredients.
These foods are often positioned as better for the environment or for health, however the real driver is the increasing cost of red meat. Hybrid-proteins allow meat-based products like sausages and burgers to be produced and sold, more cheaply, while also doing some good for the planet.
Questions for leaders:
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Which parts of our portfolio could benefit from product development based on this trend?
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How do we make sure environmental and health benefits “walk the talk”?
“Major players in the food industry entered 2026 hoping to pivot back to volume growth, but the far-reaching effects of the Iran war are keeping consumers firmly focused on affordability. As a result, private label continues to gain share, while structural headwinds including the rising use of GLP-1 drugs and declining birth rates are compounding the pressure. We’ve seen a number of high-profile break-ups and brand divestments as companies reshape their strategies to navigate a more challenging landscape.”
Tom Rees, Global Insight Manager at Euromonitor International
For a deeper look at the macrotrends shaping the future, read our previous article on consumer behavior. It explores five macroshifts across sectors and three signals that could significantly influence future consumer behavior.
3 emerging signals FMCG companies can turn into opportunities
1. Could just-in-time ripeness become the norm?
Matt Carmichael, SVP, Consumer Trends; Editor, What the Future, Ipsos
What the Future, Ipsos: What the Future is an award-winning foresight magazine from Ipsos, featuring exclusive interviews and research. Each issue explores a different topic, from beauty and transport to pets.
| Signal area: Ecological, social |
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What? “One-a-day” banana pack based on various stages of ripeness Tired of bananas going bad? A South Korean grocery store chain introduced a “one a day” banana pack, which assembles bananas at different levels of ripeness, from very green to ready-to-eat. This way, people can enjoy a banana a day without having all the bananas ripen at the same time. |
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So what? A great idea to reduce food wastage, but it conflicts with other trends This isn’t a new signal; it surfaced already in 2018, but that’s part of what makes it a strong signal. It cleverly solves a common consumer problem quite elegantly; everyone can relate to the race to eat bananas before they go bad. It’s a great idea if it can scale to other fresh foods. The fact that this has resurfaced on social media eight years later proves this, as it’s in human nature not to let a good idea… go bad. Food producers who missed the opportunity in 2018 can jump on the signal now. |
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Now what? An opportunity if brands can solve the one-a-day packaging problem Reducing food waste – not just in the banana segment – is a core customer challenge. But solving this challenge requires innovation not just in product, but also in packaging, to meet one trend without conflicting with another equally important trend. Brands that can offer “one a day” consumption, without increasing packaging waste, can turn this signal into an opportunity. Brands that solve the right problems can win twice over. |
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Questions for leaders:
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2. GLP-1s might push food companies to work directly with farmers to meet changing demands
Alisha Bhagat, Head of Futures, and Michelle Stearn, Principal Sustainability Strategist, Forum for the Future
About Forum for the Future: Forum for the Future is a leading international sustainability organization based in the UK, the US, India, and Singapore. Since 1996, it has worked with businesses, philanthropic organizations, governments, and civil society organizations to accelerate the shift towards a just and regenerative future.
| Signal area: Ecological, economic |
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What? Weight loss medications change our cravings and what we spend money on Tens of millions of people globally, including an estimated 10 million Americans, now use GLP-1 medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy. This market is projected to reach up to $200 billion by 2030, according to JPMorgan, with 25 million American users expected within the decade. These drugs, originally developed for diabetes but now widely used for weight loss, do more than decrease appetite. They also significantly reduce cravings for ultra-processed foods and increase demand for healthy, fresh foods. But the long-term health – and environmental effects – remain unknown and highly debated. Digestive side-effects are commonly reported. |
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So what? Consumer preferences change fast, and food supply might not meet demand GLP-1s are changing consumer behavior. A study in the Journal of Marketing Research found users reduced grocery spending by 5.3%, and high-income households up to 8%. Spending on savory snacks decreased by 10%, with a similar decline in unhealthy foods like sweets and cookies. Spending on healthy, natural foods like yogurt and fresh fruits increased. With a growing population consuming GLP-1 medications, this shift matters to FMCG companies in many ways. First, many of their core products — often the ones with the highest profit margins — are at risk as food preferences shift. Meanwhile, this presents an opportunity to meet increasing demand for healthy foods with clean ingredient lists. But shifts in demand cannot be met unless supply follows. Farmers need time to change what they grow. Companies risk facing a supply shortage unless they proactively work to solve it. |
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Now what? Innovate to meet demand for clean food and help farmers ensure supply To respond to shifting demand for healthy food driven by GLP-1s, as well as health and climate awareness trends, brands need to rethink their product portfolios and packaging. Alongside offering healthier and more natural alternatives, initiatives may include cleaner ingredient lists, smaller portions, transparency and traceability in food supply, innovations in home cooking, and nutrient personalization. They might even include digestive support to address the unwanted side effects of GLP-1s. Companies also need to ensure future supply to produce their food innovations. They can help farmers diversify and provide the insights and support needed to grow the crops that a new user generation on GLP-1s is likely to demand. |
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Questions for leaders:
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3. The potential of a sustainable food system: could hemp help?
Andrew Merrie, PhD, Science and Futures Lead, Planethon
Planethon is a science-backed futures agency for executives, sustainability teams, and innovation teams. Its goal is to help leaders act with the future in mind while building long-term resilience and stakeholder value.
| Signal area: Ecological and political |
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What? Hemp is emerging as a protein source that could support a sustainable food system Hemp absorbs and stores 9 to 15 times more carbon dioxide than cereals and requires almost no water to grow. Hemp is a resilient crop that combines high nutritional value with environmental benefits, efficient resource use, and support for soil health. These qualities could give hemp a valuable role in food innovation. The hemp market is expected to reach $7.04 billion in 2026, representing annual growth of 8.8%. As the search for sustainable protein continues, hemp is re-emerging as a versatile ‘Swiss Army knife’ crop used in products including biscuits, bread, butter, pasta, and flour. Does it taste good? Yes. The Swedish Photography Museum and Planethon developed a seven-course fine-dining experience for the Hemp and Hope project, featuring macaroons, ice cream, bread, and risotto made with nutritious hemp. |
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So what? Hemp is an untapped opportunity that can support multiple goals Hemp represents an untapped opportunity for businesses. This high-value, multifunctional crop responds to growing consumer demand for sustainable, clean-label products and health optimization. It also aligns with a triple-bottom-line model that balances economic, environmental, and social needs. Compared with many competing crops, hemp is rich in complete proteins and omega fatty acids. Its resilience to climate-related pressures such as water shortages can also reduce supply volatility. Businesses that innovate successfully with hemp can capitalize on a growing market while helping shape a more sustainable food system for climate-conscious consumers. |
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Now what? Innovate early to meet growing demand Over the next three to five years, businesses can expect a surge in hemp-based innovation as hemp moves into mainstream products including milk, flour, and meat products. Regulatory harmonization in the EU and North America is likely to lower barriers to entry. To prepare, companies can invest in research and development to address sensory challenges such as bitterness and unusual color, improve taste, and broaden consumer acceptance. Hemp innovators can also strengthen partnerships across the value chain, from specialist breeders to innovative chefs. These relationships will help scale production and reduce investment risk. Companies can also assess where hemp could replace traditional fibre or protein sources in their portfolios, helping them meet increasingly strict requirements for producing food and fibre within planetary boundaries. |
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Questions for leaders:
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We might not substitute food for a pill, but these signals indicate a future in which technology will continue to enable personalized health optimization efforts (with unclear long-term side-effects!) and increased demand for nutritious food that is wholesome for both ourselves and the planet.
FMCG companies may need to address multiple challenges at once: changing consumer demands, challenges in supply chains, and sustainability and traceability requirements. These early signals create opportunities to innovate across all three areas.
The future of food will be built by brands that act before a signal becomes everyone’s trend. So, what innovations are you exploring now that a slower competitor will regret missing in 2036?
[Go deeper with our previous articles in the Next Move series on Consumer Behavior and Retail]
| Executive self-reflection questions |
| 1. Where could our product portfolio or packaging evolve to reflect new consumer priorities around health, waste reduction, and sustainability? |
| 2. How quickly can we launch a test when we detect changing demand? |
| 3. Who in our organization is empowered to challenge category norms, collaborate across the supply chain, and lead innovation in food experiences, packaging, or ingredient transparency? |
Maria Selting Theorell is a futurist, tech philosopher, fractional CMO and strategic marketing consultant to Stravito. See more about her here.
Notes
1 Euromonitor International, Economies and Consumers Annual Data, 2026 edition.
2 Euromonitor International, Staple Foods, 2026 edition.
3 Euromonitor International, Economies and Consumers Annual Data, 2026 edition.
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